Food Prices Keep Climbing While Inflation Numbers Drop

Inflation Says It’s “Cooling.” My Grocery Bill Didn’t Get the Memo.

On paper, inflation looks like it’s behaving itself. The latest Consumer Price Index shows inflation at 2.7% for December. That sounds reasonable… until you’re standing in the checkout line, watching the total climb while your cart somehow looks half empty.

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For my family, groceries are where the squeeze is impossible to ignore.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of food at home — the stuff we buy to cook meals — is up nearly 30% since early 2020. That’s not a rounding error. That’s hundreds of extra dollars a month for the same basics: milk, meat, bread, eggs, and whatever produce hasn’t doubled in price this week.

The average household grocery bill is now hovering around $700 a month. We try to meal plan, buy store brands, and skip the extras, but it still feels like every trip costs more than the last one. Sure, prices only rose about 2.4% over the past year — but that’s after several years of brutal increases that families like mine are still trying to absorb.

And it’s not hitting every aisle the same way.

A new analysis from Trace One shows that meat prices — especially beef — have absolutely exploded since the pandemic began. Between March 2020 and December 2025, the price of beef roasts jumped nearly 74%. Beef steaks are up 57%, and ground beef — a staple in our house — has climbed more than 52%. When tacos, burgers, or meatloaf suddenly feel like a luxury, something’s off.

The reason isn’t mysterious. The U.S. cattle inventory is at historic lows, thanks to prolonged drought, higher feed costs, and ranchers being forced to shrink their herds. Less supply means higher prices — and families pay the difference.

It doesn’t stop there. Eggs and coffee round out the top five biggest grocery price hikes, each up more than 47% over the same time period. So whether it’s breakfast, dinner, or just trying to function before work, the basics keep getting more expensive.

What’s especially frustrating is hearing that Minnesota actually has one of the lowest grocery cost burdens in the country. Even here, the average family spends more than $1,300 a month on food when groceries and dining out are combined. If this is “low,” I hate to imagine what it feels like elsewhere.

And there’s no real relief on the horizon. The USDA expects grocery pri

ces to rise another 2.3% in 2026. That means more trade-offs, fewer extras, and more families quietly doing math in the meat aisle — deciding what gets left behind this time.

Inflation might be easing on a chart. Around my dinner table, it’s still very real.