Only the Jets let me down last week - as we crushed the bookmaker with three solid, easy winners.  I love the action this week - as I will try to nail my first "5-pack" in a while.

This is the time of the season that the real contenders, start separating themselves from the "wannabes".  And, not so coincidentally, this is also the time that real handicappers start to figure some things out, while others never do.

I think I've got a pretty good handle on week 4 - check it out!

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) vs. Minnesota Vikings -- The Chiefs are battered, beaten, and riddled with key injuries, while the Vikings have blown three big halftime leads.  The latter is much more disheartening.  The Chiefs almost beat San Diego last week, and while they will be an also-ran in the AFC this year - they have far more intestinal fortitude than the pitiful Vikings.  Adrian Peterson should be this offense's "Mr. Everything" - but Minnesota gets badly outcoached every single week, and A.P. never gets the touches he should.  You don't really have a chance to win - not in the NFL -  when you get outcoached in every aspect of the game.  After this ugly loss, Vikings fans should prepare for many more losses - and the dawning of the "Christian Ponder" era.  I hope you like punts.  Chiefs win, 17-13.

2) Green Bay Packers (-12) vs. Denver Broncos - I smell a blowout - and it's coming this week from Lambeau Field.  The Packers are rollin' along nicely, like the defending Super Bowl Champs should, especially when healthy.  The Broncos are flat out bad, on both sides of the football.  When they fall behind early, this one is sure to get ugly.  The Broncos won't be able to move the ball on offense, and they're "D" won't be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers.  That's a bad, though predictable, combination.  There's no way this game, in front of the Cheeseheads, goes any other way.  45-17 Packers roll!

3) New England Patriots (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders -- I would HATE to be the Raiders this week.  In fairness, though, I would hate to be anyone that had to play the Patriots the week after they blow a 21 point lead and lose.  Have you ever seen that happen twice in a row?  Neither have I.  The Raiders offense is better, and more diverse, than expected - but they won't be able to out duel Tom Brady.  Do you ever recall him losing two shootouts in a row?  Again, neither do I.  Plus, I don't expect Darren McFadden to run buck wild against the Patriots.  If Oakland wins this one, we will all be believers.  But it's not happening.  Patriots bounce back, 35-20.

4) St. Louis Rams (+2) vs. Washington Redskins -- I don't believe that either of these teams are very good - but the Rams are due.  The defense should be able to control a very bland 'Skins offense - and I expect Sam Bradford to make some plays in front of the home crowd.  The Rams still have hopes of a division title - even at 0-3.  Washington is a comparable team, just in a much better division, but they still may be smarting a bit after really blowing one to the Cowboys Monday night.  Personally, I've never liked Mike Shanahan much - why start now - his team isn't very good, anyway.  Go Rams, 30-14.

5) New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars -- The Saints are exactly the kind of team that the Jags' want no part of.  The Saints "O" is going to get going at some point in every game, and they (along with the Patriots) are a lock to score at least 30 points each week.  The Jaguars simply will not be able to keep up.  When MJD gets bottled up again - the Saints will smell blood in the water - mostly the blood of rookie QB, Blaine Gabbert.  New Orleans is a very legitimate Super Bowl threat - while Jacksonville is in complete rebuilding mode, on both sides of the ball.  Drew Brees is licking his chops right now, and has been, all week in preparation for this one.  This one could be decided well before half time, if the Jags' don't get off to a good start.  I think that's exactly what will happen.  Saints win, 34-16.

Last week: 3-1

Season record: 6-4